https://repositorio.unifei.edu.br/jspui/handle/123456789/88 Mon, 20 Jul 2026 01:59:14 GMT 2026-07-20T01:59:14Z https://repositorio.unifei.edu.br/jspui/handle/123456789/4455 Título: Análise da vulnerabilidade energética dos aproveitamentos hidrelétricos do sistema interligado nacional frente às mudanças climáticas e aos padrões de usos consuntivos da água Abstract: Climate change (CC), resulting from natural processes, has been intensified by anthropogenic activities, mainly due to the increased emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs). These changes have affected several sectors of society, including the environment, water resources, and electricity generation, among others. The latest climate assessment reports published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicate future reductions in precipitation in some regions of Brazil, an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme events such as droughts and floods—particularly in the North and Northeast regions—and a rise in global average temperatures. These factors, combined with changes in water consumption patterns, which are also influenced by climate conditions, may further impact the Brazilian Electric Sector (BES) due to its strong dependence on hydropower generation. This study assesses the impacts of climate change and water demands on streamflows in the main river basins and hydropower plants in Brazil, as well as their effects on electricity generation. For this purpose, the MGB-IPH hydrological model was applied to simulate the historical period (1970–2014) and future scenarios (2015–2100) under climate change conditions. The simulations were driven by projections from five climate models from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections/Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (NEX-GDDP/CMIP6) dataset, considering two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, namely the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), as well as projections of consumptive water uses provided by the Brazilian National Water and Basic Sanitation Agency (ANA). The energy assessment proposed in this study is based on Natural Inflow Energy (NIE), since this variable is directly related to streamflows at hydropower plants. The results show that all five climate models consistently project reductions in streamflows for the future scenarios at the major hydropower plants evaluated. However, the models differ regarding the magnitude of these reductions. The NIE projections obtained with the CanESM5 model indicate the largest decreases, reaching reductions of up to 100% in the Paraguaçu River Basin. In contrast, the projections generated by the INM model indicate positive variations, with increases approaching 10%. For the remaining climate models, reductions in NIE average around 20%. The most significant findings of this study highlight how climate change and increasing water consumption may affect hydropower generation and further increase the vulnerability of the sector. Therefore, the results presented here can provide valuable information to support planning and decision-making by responsible agencies, enabling the implementation of measures to mitigate future impacts on hydropower generation and enhance the resilience of the Brazilian electricity sector. Tipo: Tese Fri, 13 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://repositorio.unifei.edu.br/jspui/handle/123456789/4455 2026-03-13T00:00:00Z https://repositorio.unifei.edu.br/jspui/handle/123456789/4448 Título: Projeto e análise de viabilidade econômica do pré-tratamento de casca de café para produção de briquetes e aplicação em bioenergia Abstract: Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer and exporter, generates substantial amounts of coffee husks, the main solid residue from wet processing. Recent research has demonstrated its energy potential. However, the high moisture, low density and irregular particle size require pre-treatment for efficient thermochemical conversion. This study aimed to design and perform the economic analysis of a coffee husk pre-treatment plant, including drying, comminution and densification steps, for the production of briquettes. The economic feasibility of the bioenergy plant, i.e., the pre-treatment associated with the combustion of briquettes for electricity generation, was also analyzed. Sensitivity analyses of the design and economic variables were performed, focusing on the influence of the drying operating conditions. The Net Present Value (𝑁𝑃𝑉), Internal Rate of Return (𝐼𝑅𝑅), simple payback (𝑃) and discounted payback (𝑃𝑑) were evaluated. The Levelized Cost of Production per Briquette Mass (𝐿𝐶𝑀) for the pre-treatment plant and the Levelized Cost of Electricity (𝐿𝐶𝑂𝐸) for the bioenergy plant were calculated. The results demonstrated that the commercialization of the briquettes was viable, with 𝑁𝑃𝑉 in the range of US$ 38,635 to US$ 192,046, 𝐼𝑅𝑅 of 11.62% to 11.95%, simple payback of 5.66 to 5.74 years and discounted payback of 9.27 to 9.48 years. The lowest 𝐿𝐶𝑀 of R$ 602 t−1 (US$ 0.115 kg−1) occurred from higher values of drying air temperature (120 ºC), bed height (4 cm) and biomass flow rate (1500 kg h−1). Under these conditions, the minimum price (𝑃𝑏𝑟𝑖𝑞) and sales value (𝑉𝑏𝑟𝑖𝑞) of the briquette were R$ 609 t−1 (US$ 0.116 kg−1) and R$ 811 t−1 (US$ 0.155 kg−1), respectively, within the ranges reported in the literature and some advertisements in the Brazilian market. However, 𝑉𝑏𝑟𝑖𝑞 was not attractive when compared to firewood, which may make it difficult to accept coffee husk briquettes in practice, if there are no tax incentives. The bioenergy plant was unfeasible, with an average 𝑁𝑃𝑉 of − US$ 7.92 million, mainly due to the high investment in combustion technology (63.7% of the total investment) and high drying costs (56.8% of the operating costs). The lowest 𝐿𝐶𝑂𝐸 (US$ 198.58 MWh−1) was achieved at the highest air temperature in the optimistic scenario (𝐶𝑢𝑛 = US$ 2,000 kW−1), but above the base tariff (US$ 67.32 MWh−1). Air temperature, followed by bed height, were the drying variables with the greatest influence on the bioenergy plant economics, while air velocity was inelastic. The unitary cost of conversion technology (𝐶𝑢𝑛) was the economic variable with the greatest impact. Therefore, in addition to considering economic improvements in drying, it is also necessary to reduce the capital costs of combustion or investigate more affordable conversion technologies. The pre-treatment plant thus emerges as the most promising alternative for the utilization of wet-processed coffee husks. Tipo: Tese Sat, 13 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://repositorio.unifei.edu.br/jspui/handle/123456789/4448 2026-06-13T00:00:00Z https://repositorio.unifei.edu.br/jspui/handle/123456789/4447 Título: Impactos da operação intermitente de UHES na mortandade de peixes devido à supersaturação gasosa Abstract: The intermittent operation of hydroelectric power plants (HPPs), characterized by constant fluctuations in water levels and discharge, alters the hydrodynamic conditions within reservoirs and downstream river reaches. This operational regime enhances water aeration, particularly during spillway passage, increasing the dissolution of gases such as oxygen and nitrogen. This effect is exacerbated when the HPP operates as a runof- river facility and employs a submerged-crest spillway. Such operational patterns may generate significant impacts on aquatic fauna, particularly fish mortality induced by gas supersaturation. This phenomenon occurs when the concentration of dissolved gases exceeds the natural saturation capacity of water under specific temperature and pressure conditions. The resulting supersaturation leads to the formation of gas bubbles within fish tissues, triggering severe physiological disorders, including gas embolism—commonly referred to as gas bubble disease (GBD). Gas embolism obstructs blood circulation and causes extensive damage to vital organs such as gills, swim bladder, and the nervous system. The physiological stress associated with these conditions also compromises the immune system of fish, increasing their susceptibility to secondary diseases. Mitigating these impacts requires the adoption of strategic measures. Continuous monitoring of gas saturation in the water enables the identification of hazardous conditions and supports preventive action. In addition, operational adjustments in HPPs can minimize abrupt variations in flow and pressure, while controlled aeration devices and depressurization systems can reduce excess dissolved gases. Furthermore, the creation of fish refuge areas provides protective habitats during critical periods. Therefore, this thesis aimed to investigate the formation of gas supersaturation, reproduce this event under controlled laboratory conditions, and propose mitigation strategies for fish mortality. This study represents a multifaceted challenge that demands collaboration among engineers, biologists, environmental managers, and local communities. A comprehensive understanding of the underlying mechanisms and the implementation of technical and environmental solutions are essential to balance hydroelectric power generation with the preservation of aquatic biodiversity. Tipo: Tese Fri, 29 May 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://repositorio.unifei.edu.br/jspui/handle/123456789/4447 2026-05-29T00:00:00Z https://repositorio.unifei.edu.br/jspui/handle/123456789/4441 Título: A integração dos modelos WRF e MGB-IPH como suporte à prevenção de inundações: um estudo de caso para a bacia do Paraíba do Sul Abstract: The Paraíba do Sul River Basin (PSRB) stands out in the Brazilian economic scenario, covering a region responsible for approximately 14% of the national GDP and encompassing the states with the highest population density and economic development in the country. However, the PSRB is frequently impacted by extreme precipitation events, resulting in floods and landslides. This study evaluates the integration of the WRF atmospheric and MGB-IPH hydrological models to predict extreme precipitation and flow events, with the aim of optimizing warnings of extreme flood events in the region. To understand the hydrological behavior of the PSRB, historical precipitation and flow series were analyzed, identifying average patterns, trends and extreme events, as well as selecting a critical period for model validation. The atmospheric simulation with WRF was started with data from GFS/NCEP and validated using data from MERGE and rainfall stations, while the MGB-IPH model was adjusted and calibrated to represent the basin. Hydrological simulations were carried out with precipitation data from WRF and GFS, and evaluated with data from fluviometric stations. The historical analysis revealed that the higher-altitude regions of the PSRB record higher rainfall accumulations, higher flows and a greater frequency of extreme events. Along the Paraíba do Sul River, a negative flow trend was observed, possibly associated with the growing demand for water resources. However, the central region of the PSRB showed an increase in the occurrence of extreme flow events, reinforcing the need for monitoring and flood warnings. The results indicate that WRF simulated the spatial distribution of precipitation with greater consistency, but underestimated extreme events in some areas. The hydrological simulations showed that integrating the WRF with the MGB-IPH improved the flow forecast, reducing errors and better capturing flood peaks compared to the GFS, standing out as a promising tool for hydrological monitoring and forecasting with a focus on mitigating the damage caused by floods. Tipo: Tese Fri, 21 Mar 2025 00:00:00 GMT https://repositorio.unifei.edu.br/jspui/handle/123456789/4441 2025-03-21T00:00:00Z