Fatores determinantes e condicionantes para políticas públicas de substituição gás – eletricidade no uso final

Abstract

With the beginning of the Brazil-Bolivia natural gas pipeline operation, with the new discoveries of natural gas in the basin of Santos and with the construction of a pipeline network, it is believed that the consumption of this energetic moves forward in all the segments of the society, inclusively the residential, specifically for heating of water to bath. This segment lacks of another energetic for this end, because it is known that the electric shower is the great responsible for the overcharge of the electric system in the peak load time. This way, this dissertation presents, initially, the evolution of the gas consumption in Brazil and the barriers faced the consolidation of this use. After that, it will be presented some researches that describe the impact of the electric shower in the peak load time. Besides, it will be presented a methodology that already comes being studied by the utility, with objective of decreasing the influence of this equipment in the peak load time. From two aleatory variables, the hour of the shower and its lenght. The Monte Carlo simulation can be applied, with objective of obtaining the power demand curve for a specific population. After this result, applying a differentiated energy rate, it can be obtained the new curve for a given sample of showers. Applying the differentiated energy rate the consumer has three options: migration outwards from the peak load time, the permanence in the peak load time and the migration to natural gas. However, those three situations are linked with each consumer's income. Finally, it will be presented three public policies; the first describes the effects originating of the differentiated energy rate application and the substitution of energetic electricity-natural gas, in the end user; the second describes the application of the differentiated energy rate and a new natural gas rate; the third has as objective to incorporate in the second policy the mechanism of income transfer.