Análise do impacto do aumento do nível do mar em um sistema de macrodrenagem no Espírito Santo

Abstract

In recent decades, the world, especially Brazil, has been experiencing extreme rainfall events with greater intensity and frequency, leading to an increase in the number of floods and inundations, resulting in economic, social, and environmental losses. One of the tools for managing and addressing macrodrainage issues is the Macrodrainage Master Plan (MMP), which serves as a fundamental instrument of public policy for the long-term planning of macrodrainage systems. Evaluating the impact of rising sea levels in the development of MMPs in coastal regions becomes necessary to enable urban planning in response to climate change impacts. This work aims to demonstrate the importance of developing scenarios to assess the impact of rising sea levels on macrodrainage systems in the formulation of Macrodrainage Master Plans in Coastal Zones, using a case study in the Espírito Santo coastline. The proposed methodology involves hydrodynamic simulation of extreme precipitation events combined with rising sea levels for the Rio da Draga basin in Vila Velha - ES, using the SOBEK software.The simulations revealed that the occurrence of a 25-year recurrence interval event, combined with a 1.0-meter rise in sea level, results in an approximately 9-fold increase in the flooded area, with a maximum water depth of 0.80 meters at the reference point, which does not occur in the scenario without the implementation of protective infrastructure. The lack of a methodology for analyzing the impact of rising sea levels in the development of master plans in coastal regions can lead to flawed analyses and inefficient infrastructure projects, making it crucial to consider this factor in the Coastal Macrodrainage Master Plans