Análise estocástica da competitividade de uma usina eólica offshore (UEO) na costa brasileira através do Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE)

Abstract

The interest in offshore wind power in Brazil is a recent development, and there is a lack of research on the actual competitiveness of this energy source in the country. This study proposes a stochastic approach to compare the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for offshore wind farms at five different locations along the Brazilian coast. Various possibilities of corporate taxation and the commercialization of carbon credits are also considered. To validate the comparison, the offshore wind potential of the evaluated locations is assessed by modeling the uncertainties associated with monthly variations in wind speed, as well as the economic uncertainties related to Capital Expenditure (CAPEX), Operational Expenditure (OPEX), and Decommissioning Expenditure (DECEX). Subsequently, 10,000 iterations of the Monte Carlo Simulation are conducted to calculate the LCOE for different scenarios, including taxation based on the Actual Profit Method (APM) and the Presumed Profit Method (PPM), with and without Tradable Green Certificates (TGC). The results indicate that the application of the PPM for taxation and the identification of the optimal location for wind power exploitation are the most influential factors in reducing the LCOE and the financial risk associated with offshore wind farm investments in Brazil. On the other hand, the possibility of trading TGC contributes to lowering the LCOE of projects but does not significantly mitigate the financial risk. Furthermore, the study reveals that the coastal region near the Northeast of Brazil exhibits the highest offshore wind potential, while locations in Rio Grande do Sul and Rio de Janeiro demonstrate some competitiveness, although to a lesser extent than the Northeast.