Aplicação de método multicritério na identificação de abrigos para população afetada por inundações: estudo de caso em Itajubá – MG

Abstract

Many Brazilian cities face recurrent flooding, and in Itajubá, located in southern Minas Gerais within the Sapucaí River Basin, the situation worsens during rainy periods, mainly due to increased soil impermeabilization. Floods cause economic, social, and environmental impacts, and despite historical records, the municipality lacks a comprehensive risk management plan for selecting temporary shelters, which should consider specific strategies, criteria, and subcriteria. Geoprocessing tools are essential for monitoring and evaluating flood-prone areas. This study aimed to analyze criteria for selecting shelter locations in flood-risk areas using geoprocessing and multi-criteria analysis through the AHP method. Flood risk levels were defined, the vulnerable population was characterized, and criteria and subcriteria were hierarchized to support decision-making. The results indicated approximately 35,415 people exposed, exceeding official estimates. Spatial analysis revealed a concentration of shelters in high-susceptibility areas (“Inadequate” or “Low Suitability”). In safe areas, 55 institutions with 12,932 accommodations were identified; in low-suitability areas, 24 institutions with 3,736 accommodations; and in suitable areas, 25 institutions with 5,697 accommodations, while fully suitable areas remain underutilized. The deployment of temporary open-air shelters was limited, with capacity for only 52 people. The hierarchy of criteria highlighted the predominance of physical variables, especially altitude and distance from rivers. The study demonstrates that integrating geoprocessing and multi-criteria analysis allows identification of safe areas, supports shelter allocation, and provides technical guidance for updating contingency plans and public policies, with potential replicability in other municipalities in the basin, contributing to risk reduction and increased population safety in the face of extreme hydrological events.