Uma análise regulatória, energética e econômica da implantação de parques eólicos offshore no Brasil

Abstract

The growing need to diversify the electricity matrix and increase the share of renewable energy sources has stimulated interest in offshore wind energy, particularly in countries with high wind potential such as Brazil. In this context, this study aimed to evaluate the techno-economic feasibility of offshore wind farm deployment in the Campos Basin, considering energy, economic and regulatory aspects. Ten offshore locations were selected, and wind speed data obtained from the ERA5 reanalysis were characterized using the Weibull distribution and extrapolated to the hub height of the Vestas V112-3.0 MW Offshore wind turbine. Based on the estimated parameters, available wind power, annual energy production, capacity factor, levelized cost of energy (LCOE), and net present value (NPV) were determined. In addition, bathymetric conditions and the main regulatory instruments related to offshore wind development in Brazil were analyzed. The results indicated mean wind speeds ranging from 7.48 m/s to 7.99 m/s, capacity factors between 44.75% and 50.0%, and LCOE values varying from R$ 556.1/MWh to R$ 624.3/MWh. Locations with the highest energy performance were associated with greater water depths, requiring floating technologies, whereas shallower sites were more suitable for fixed-bottom foundations. Although all NPV values were negative under the economic assumptions adopted, the results demonstrate that project feasibility depends not only on wind resource availability but also on bathymetric conditions, foundation-related costs and the evolution of the regulatory framework. The multicriteria analysis identified points P6, P7 and P8 as the most promising locations for offshore wind development in the study area. It is concluded that the Campos Basin presents significant potential for offshore wind generation; however, the consolidation of this technology in Brazil depends on cost reductions, advances in floating wind technologies and the maturation of the national regulatory framework.