A pandemia por covid-19 e seus impactos na mobilidade urbana: um estudo de caso utilizando análise estatística espacial

Abstract

Due to the rapid advance of the disease by Covid-19 and its spread on a global level, the new coronavirus has significantly impacted people's daily activities and created an unprecedented scenario, since several measures were implemented as a way to reduce contagion and spread Covid-19 disease. Thus, a theoretical deepening on the social variables that can influence the spread of the disease, is important for the control measures to Covid-19 to be effective both in the present moment and in the future. Therefore, the work aims to assess the impact of travel patterns, land use and socioeconomic aspects on the spatial distribution of Covid-19 cases. The methodology consists of modeling using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) methods. A case study was carried out in São João del Rei, a medium-sized municipality in the state of Minas Gerais. Initially, a descriptive and spatial study was developed in the cities of Itajubá and São João del Rei, both medium-sized cities located in Minas Gerais, as a way to assess how the pandemic by Covid-19 impacted the travel behavior, and daily activities of its inhabitants, such as also the impact on public and road safety. For this, data from a survey on the daily activities of the population before and during the pandemic applied in 2020 in both cities were used, data from traffic accidents and assaults on public roads collected from the Military Police of each city. It was possible to identify that there are associations between socio-demographic variables and the place where the main activity was carried out during the pandemic by Covid -19 of the respondents through the application of Pearson's chi-square test. Through an exploratory analysis it was identified in both cities a percentage reduction in the use of buses as a means of transport, an increase in short trips of up to 10 minutes, as well as a reduction in the frequency of accidents and robberies on public roads during the analysis period, for both cities. In the city of São João del Rei, the sample with the data showed a better spatial distribution and information on the number of Covid-19 cases was available to the entire population, enabling a more in-depth study with statistical analysis, using the OLS and GWR methods with the variables determined for the city of São João del Rei. The results show a strong association between the number of cases of Covid-19 and several variables of the travel behavior, socioeconomic and land use. The GWR approach proved to be an important tool to explain the spatial distribution of Covid-19 cases in the municipality, showing in most cases a better fit than the OLS method. The study on the association between social variables and the spread of disease was important and remains necessary. The result serves as a subsidy to the planning of urban mobility with measures aimed at health security and service to the population during and after this period of crisis, and thus make more efficient use of public resources with a view to sustainable development.