Projeção de demanda energética do setor residencial em Cabo Verde: análise da inserção de microgeração fotovoltaica por classe de renda

Abstract

Economic and population growth has driven a sharp increase in energy demand. The mass use of energy from fossil fuels has brought several discussions due to environmental problems such as increased emissions of greenhouse gases, deforestation, pollution, etc. Cape Verde, which falls in the group of medium development countries, follows the same trend. The country has an energy matrix with a predominance of fossil fuels from the external market. Given this, this work developed a projection of energy consumption in the residential sector in Cape Verde until 2030. For this, 3 scenarios were proposed, the Reference scenario which follows national trends from policies adopted by the government, the Efficient scenario which aims at the efficient consumption of energy from the exchange of equipment and changes in behavioral habits and a scenario of Distributed Solar Photovoltaic Microgeneration - DSPM in the last two income classes, to verify the technical and economic viability of the project. For the projection of these scenarios, the LEAP-Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning System software was used. The results of this study show that for the Reference scenario the final energy demand should grow about 2.3% per year and the demand for electrical energy will grow at a rate of 5% per year until 2030. Regarding the Efficient scenario, the final energy consumption will grow at a rate of 1.9% per year representing a decrease of 54.6 GWh from one scenario to the other. As for the demand for electrical energy in the Efficient scenario, it will grow at a rate of 4.3% per year accounting for a decrease in consumption of 90.1 GWh concerning the Reference scenario. The analysis of the insertion of photovoltaic solar energy by income class showed that the investment is economically viable presenting a payback of 5 years. With this system, the households would be ceasing to consume directly from the electric grid in the planning horizon until 2030, about 222 GWh of energy. Therefore, it is extremely important that energy planning is carried out to ensure continuity in the supply of energy and to meet the demand efficiently since resources are scarce. Studies of this kind must be prepared so that energy managers have a solid basis for decision-making.