Auxílio à tomada de decisão em um e-marketplace logístico através da simulação baseada em agentes

Abstract

The growth of the internet favored the development of electronic marketplaces, online platforms that act as intermediaries in the negotiation process between two independent parties. When inserted in the context of load transport, they are known as a logistics e-marketplace, and it connects the agents involved in the movement of various goods. Despite the advantages, several electronic marketplaces have failed recently due to the low performance of the platform. In this context, correct decision making, mainly at the tactical and strategic levels, can be a determining factor for the organization to present a satisfactory performance in the market in which it is inserted. One of the techniques that collaborate to help the decision-making process is the Agent-Based Simulation (ABS). ABS is a computer simulation method, and it is recommended when the analysis to be performed involves many individuals who have well-defined decisions and behaviors. The literature, despite being composed of several works that developed an ABS model to assist the decision-making process, still lacks studies that use the method in the logistics e-marketplaces environment. In fact, the dynamics of electronic marketplaces – not just the freight transport model – is still a field to be explored in academia. Thus, this work aims to develop an SBA model able to analyze the impact that different customer acquisition channels have on the final number of new users of a logistics e-marketplace, in order to support the decision making of the organization's managers. In general, three important topics obtained in this research can be highlighted: 1- the elaboration of a conceptual model, as suggested by the methodology, favored the visualization of the process to be modeled; 2 - the ODD Protocol (Overview, Design Concepts and Details) was adequate to fulfill all the activities proposed in the first phase of the simulation methodology, in addition to facilitating the replication of the model by other researchers; 3 - the validation of the model, performed in order to combine two methods, was developed in a more robust and reliable way. Regarding the results of the simulation, it was possible to establish the scenarios with the greatest impact on activating new customers in the logistics e-marketplace, in addition to defining an order of priority for the acquisition channels when making new investments. In the alternative scenario that was observed the best performance, there was improvements of up to 20% in the conversion rate of new users compared to the initial scenario. In addition, the “indicação interna” acquisition channel was defined as the priority to be invested and may improve the conversion rate of potential users by up to 16.9%. As future works, the study based on “cost benefit” is suggested, as well as the analysis of the causalities between the acquisition channels.