Análise da influência das mudanças climáticas no aproveitamento hidroenergético da bacia hidrográfica do rio Sapucaí

Abstract

Climate changes are alterations in the climate caused by global warming, which results from the increased emission of anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases (GHG). These climate alterations pose a significant challenge to the environment and economic sectors, including the energy sector. As electricity generation in Brazil is predominantly from hydroelectric sources, understanding the dynamics of precipitation and flow processes becomes essential for the operation and analysis of the system's vulnerabilities to climate changes. The current study analyzed the hydroelectric potential of the Sapucaí River watershed in climate change scenarios, using the Large Basin Hydrological Model (MGB-IPH) and the climate projections from NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX GDDP), based on the SSP2-4.5 intermediate scenarios and SSP5-8.5 high emissions scenarios from the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results indicate a trend of stability or slight increase in the power generated in climate change scenarios, especially in SSP5-8.5, which predicts higher emissions. This underscores the need to integrate climate projections into the planning and management of water resources to ensure the resilience and sustainability of hydroelectric generation in Brazil in the face of climate changes