Hydro, wind, and solar energy in Brazil: Changes projected by CMIP6 climate models

Abstract

This study evaluated projected changes in key climate variables relevant to the energy sector in South America, with a focus on Brazil, using simulations from eight CMIP6 global climate models. The study analyzed precipitation, 100 m wind speed, wind power density, global horizontal irradiance, concentrated solar power (CSP), and photovoltaic potential (PVP). The Quantile Delta Mapping (QDM) method was applied for bias correction and statistical downscaling. The simulations indicate significant reductions in precipitation, increased duration and severity of droughts, and delays in the onset and demise of the South American monsoon, especially under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. A shortening of the rainy season was also observed over the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and the Brazilian Amazon. Regarding renewable energy, projections indicate a 25-50% increase in wind power density in Northeastern and Southern Brazil, Patagonia, northern Venezuela, Uruguay, Bolivia, and Paraguay. CSP potential is expected to increase by up to 6% in Northeastern Brazil and parts of Chile, while PVP is projected to rise by 1-4% in the Midwest, Southeast, and Amazon regions, with predominantly neutral or negative trends in Southern Brazil. The complementarity between sources (rain-solar and wind-solar) tends to strengthen in several areas, favoring hybrid energy systems. However, the growing intermittency of renewable sources and reduced hydropower storage capacity pose operational challenges. The results highlight the importance of integrated energy planning and infrastructure expansion in the context of climate change, with Brazil strategically positioned to lead the sustainable energy transition in the region.