Efeitos das mudanças climáticas na distribuição e conservação do papagaio-de-peito-roxo (amazona vinacea) (aves: psittacidae) na Mata Atlântica utilizando modelagem de nicho ecológico

Abstract

The Vinaceous-breasted Parrot (Amazona vinacea) is a globally threatened species that inhabits subtropical Atlantic Forest areas in southern Brazil and mountainous regions in the southeast. Its distribution is strongly associated with the presence of Araucaria angustifolia, one of its main food sources. However, climate change poses an additional pressure, potentially altering the species’ distribution and affecting suitable habitats for its survival. Furthermore, the species has a fragmented distribution, being less abundant or even absent in some areas that, at first glance, appear to offer favorable conditions, such as suitable nesting and feeding sites. This study aims to predict the habitat suitability for Amazona vinacea in the Atlantic Forest, considering current and future climate scenarios, and to evaluate the representativeness of these areas within protected areas in the context of climate change. To achieve this, ecological niche modeling was applied using occurrence records from citizen science platforms, with the goal of identifying suitable areas for the species and addressing knowledge gaps in its distribution. Additionally, an analysis of areas identified as suitable habitat was performed, quantifying the proportion included in protected areas. The results indicated that, under future scenarios, the species tends to expand its range; however, a significant portion of these new areas lies outside the boundaries of protected areas. These findings highlight the need for conservation strategies that account for the potential expansion of the species’ distribution and its implications for the protection of the vinaceous-breasted amazon and its habitat.