Impacto socioeconômico da liberalização do mercado de eletricidade no Brasil: previsão e análise otimizada de tarifas

Abstract

The Brazilian electricity sector is undergoing a major transformation, following the growth of the deregulated market. Similar to several countries around the world, Brazil is restructuring its power market and adopting measures to expand the participation of low-voltage consumers in the Free Contracting Environment (ACL). Technical Note No. 10/2022-SRM/ANEEL proposes a gradual migration of consumers from the regulated to the free market until 2026. Within this context, this thesis evaluates the effects of this proposal on the regulated market, analyzing the impact of migration across 13 Brazilian concession areas based on a combination of an optimized tariff model and forecasting models. Specifically, the study examines how market opening influences the behavior of the regulated agents, considering both the socioeconomic welfare of the consumers who remain in the regulated market and the financial performance of the distribution companies. According to the results, the market opening proposal led to a reduction in both the financial-economic balance of the utilities and social welfare. Furthermore, there was an increase in tariffs that could directly impact household budgets, requiring higher spending on electricity. As a consequence, a potential reduction in consumers' purchasing power is observed, since a larger portion of their income is spent on higher electricity bills, limiting the consumption of other goods and services. This tariff increase stems from legacy contracts, which were established in the past to serve a larger number of consumers, as well as the need to ensure the financial-economic equilibrium of the distributors. With free migration, the clients who stay in the regulated market are penalized by these contracts because, as more people leave the Regulated Contracting Environment, the remaining fixed cost is divided among fewer people. In conclusion, the proposal from NT No. 10/2022-SRM/ANEEL affects each concession area differently. Therefore, regulatory adjustments are essential to prevent long-term tariff increases, making it crucial to align the schedule for opening the free market with the reduction of legacy contracts. Finally, it is worth noting that although the proposed methodology is applied to the Brazilian scenario, it can be adapted and used by any country undergoing electricity market liberalization, provided it respects local rules and regulations.