Análise do ciclo de vida consequencial da maximização das fontes renováveis em cenários futuros da matriz elétrica no Brasil

Abstract

Decarbonization of the electrical matrix is a key component of mitigation strategies for environmental impacts aimed at reducing levels of carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere. The energy transition from fossil sources to renewable sources is an adequate measure to manage the reduction of emissions resulting from the energy generation process, while promoting the socioeconomic development of the regions where this strategy is applied. The present study aims to assess the long-term changes in the environmental and economic performance of Brazil's electricity matrix, based on the government plan. In order to achieve this objective, prospective scenarios were defined: the reference scenario is based on the government's energy expansion plan for the 2030-2050 horizon, and three others were drawn up based on this. For these, it was considered that there would be no growth in fossil energy sources in the future, and their participation would be constant, according to the generation values for the year 2019. Thus, in the second scenario, it was considered that the possible growth of the fuel fossil would be replaced by the maximum penetration of biomass in the 2030-2050 government plan, as well as in the third scenario it was considered that this replacement was made by the maximum penetration of the wind source and finally, the fourth scenario was considered the maximum penetration of the source photovoltaic (PV). The increase in the fossil source would only happen if the amount of maximum renewable energy penetration was not sufficient to supply the future energy increment. In order to analyze the environmental performance of the analyzed scenarios, the Life Cycle Analysis methodology was used and for economic performance, the leveled cost of energy (LCOE). The results show that the best performance for the Global Warming Potential (GWP) was for the scenario of maximizing the wind source, with an average value of 0.121 kgCO2/kWh and the worst performance for the scenario of government energy expansion, with the average value of 0.167 kgCO2/kWh. The lowest average leveled cost of electricity was for the wind expansion scenario, with 0.0438 USD/kWh and the highest leveled cost of electricity was for the biomass expansion scenario, with 0.0476 USD/kWh. The results of this study can support the formulation of policies for the future planning of Brazilian bioenergy.