Resumo:
This study evaluates the potential of available land areas for bioenergy production in
2050 without compromising food security limits. The estimates contain the global population
food demand, the agricultural production supply, the availability of surplus land that could be
used for biofuels production, and the bioenergy production potential in the remaining area. The
novelty of this article is the qualitative and quantitative evaluation of the parameters that
influence the availability of land for bioenergy production. Unlike previous studies, the work
also considers food waste in projections, the degraded land area, in addition to parameters that
are often disregarded by other authors, such as urban agriculture and the consumption of insect
proteins. The projections were made for 3 different scenarios: business as usual (C1), the best
of realistic scenarios (C2), and the theoretical situation (C3). The projections disregard the
economic and market influences that govern the distribution and use of land. The current
excessive consumption and the impacts of human activities are responsible for the reduction in
the available land area for bioenergy, while the application of disruptive technologies is the
main factor of increase. There will be enough arable land to feed the world population in 2050
in the three proposed scenarios. However, even choosing to prioritize the preservation of
forests, and going to shrubland as the next agricultural frontier, the arable land available for
new bioenergy projects could be limited in C1, and it would be necessary to deforest 24% of
the forests area (935 Mha). In C2, 5,7% of arable land would remain available to produce
bioenergy, reaching 92% of the carbon sequestration target. And in C3, 42% of arable land
could produce bioenergy to sequester more than 6 times the amount of carbon stipulated for
2100. The parameters with the greatest opportunities for gains, for quantitative reasons and
technical feasibility of action, are food waste, low productivity due to land degradation,
increases in productivity due to technological gain, and reduction in the consumption of animal
proteins, especially from roaring animals. The potential participation of bioenergy in the global
energy matrix is relevant even for C1, at 7.5%, with 64 EJ. In the best of realistic scenarios, C2,
bioenergy could represent 21.0% of global energy production, with 178 EJ, while the energy
crops could produce 31 times bigger than today. The results of the global bioenergy potential
obtained in the projections of the most realistic scenarios, C1 and C2, were close to each other
and other studies in the bibliography. In the theoretical situation, C3, bioenergy could supply
almost two and a half times the total global demand for primary energy in 2050.