Estudo da implantação de uma miniusina solar fotovoltaica na UNIFEI, aspectos técnicos, econômicos e exergéticos

Abstract

This thesis presents technical, economic, risk, and sensitivity analysis for a micro photovoltaic power plant installed at the UNIFEI campus. For technical analysis it was modeled three different scenarios: Scenario I, the system modeled in accords with the capacity installed; Scenario II, the system modeled by the limits of contracted demand; Scenario III, the system modeled to meet total consumption on campus; along with three economic scenarios: pessimistic, more likely, and optimistic. Besides, a real micro photovoltaic generator of 1252 Wp was addressed using exergy and sensitivity analysis. The technical analysis presented the energetic contribution of the PV system in the three scenarios evaluated Scenarios I, II, and III showed the possibility to reduce yearly 38.5%, 57.26%, and 81.16%, respectively, of the consumption of electricity. For the economic evaluation, VPL, IRR, and LCOE were performance indicators and tools for decision-making support. In addition, sensitivity and risk analysis were carried by Monte Carlo simulation through Crystal Ball software. The economic output pointed to the project’s viability under more likely and optimistic scenarios. The sensitivity analysis pointed to minimum acceptable rate return (MARR) as the variable that causes more effect on the project’s economic viability. The risk analysis indicated viability for more than 94% of the cases considering all three technical scenarios. The comparison between PVSyst simulations and the real PV system presents differences of only 0.05% on performance ratio (PR). From the exergetic point of view, the efficiency is affected clearly by the near shadings, the Grassmann diagram indicated that the larger share of exergy destruction comes from the solar energy conversion, which is addressed with destruction rates of 70% of the system input. The sensitivity analysis from exergy evaluation indicated that the wind velocity is the variable that causes a higher impact of efficiency, regardless of the season.