Resumo:
This thesis presents technical, economic, risk, and sensitivity analysis for a micro photovoltaic
power plant installed at the UNIFEI campus. For technical analysis it was modeled three
different scenarios: Scenario I, the system modeled in accords with the capacity installed;
Scenario II, the system modeled by the limits of contracted demand; Scenario III, the system
modeled to meet total consumption on campus; along with three economic scenarios:
pessimistic, more likely, and optimistic. Besides, a real micro photovoltaic generator of 1252
Wp was addressed using exergy and sensitivity analysis. The technical analysis presented the
energetic contribution of the PV system in the three scenarios evaluated Scenarios I, II, and III
showed the possibility to reduce yearly 38.5%, 57.26%, and 81.16%, respectively, of the
consumption of electricity. For the economic evaluation, VPL, IRR, and LCOE were
performance indicators and tools for decision-making support. In addition, sensitivity and risk
analysis were carried by Monte Carlo simulation through Crystal Ball software. The economic
output pointed to the project’s viability under more likely and optimistic scenarios. The
sensitivity analysis pointed to minimum acceptable rate return (MARR) as the variable that
causes more effect on the project’s economic viability. The risk analysis indicated viability for
more than 94% of the cases considering all three technical scenarios. The comparison between
PVSyst simulations and the real PV system presents differences of only 0.05% on performance
ratio (PR). From the exergetic point of view, the efficiency is affected clearly by the near
shadings, the Grassmann diagram indicated that the larger share of exergy destruction comes
from the solar energy conversion, which is addressed with destruction rates of 70% of the
system input. The sensitivity analysis from exergy evaluation indicated that the wind velocity
is the variable that causes a higher impact of efficiency, regardless of the season.
