Planejamento de sistemas de geração com elevada penetração de energia eólica

Abstract

Renewable sources of energy will take a greater share of the electricity generation mix in order to minimize the dependence on fossil fuels and the emission of CO2. The insertion of those sources in the power systems have called the attention of regulator organs, as well as planners and operators – not only because it represent an important structural change, but also because of the introduction of a high number of random variables and complexities in the generation and transmission systems, due to flotation capacity of renewable sources. Bearing in mind the fragility of deterministic criteria to work with randomness involved in power systems, the adoption of probabilistic approaches become crucial for a correct definition of reserve requirements in systems with high penetration of renewable energy. However, the probabilistic models are not still easily accepted. In order to reduce the rejection in relation to probabilistic techniques, a new methodology called Well-Being Analysis was developed, which combines the robustness of probabilistic approaches with the deterministic planners’ perception. This technique, by further classifying the success states in healthy and marginal, allows the identification of how distant from the failure region the system operates. This dissertation presents a new methodology, based on the sequential Monte Carlo simulation model, to evaluate the reserve requirements of generating systems with high penetration of renewable energy. The main objective is to analyze the behavior of the traditional and Well-Being indices, when the penetration level assumes significant values, no matter if it is from hydraulic or wind sources. The application of the proposed methodology is illustrated through case studies carried out using configurations of the Portuguese generating system.