Modelo adimensional para estimativa de custos de grupos geradores de pequenas centrais hidrelétricas

Abstract

Researches in Hydro Power estimation costs are extremely complex because are many parameters that must be analyzed, such as the location of the project, considering the prices of construction inputs, as well the physical characteristics where the Hydro Power is built, changing accord region. Besides, the energy market oscillations, as well the local and world economy interference, affect directly the Hydro Power costs, so a better knowledge about the costs behavior minimizes the aggregate errors in the estimative to decision takes. In this way, the present study shows a model of estimation cost based on costs’ information of several hydropower plants in Brazil and worldwide analysis, bringing up the technological cost concept to the modeling, representing the generator group manufacturing cost, excluding the commodities costs. Technological cost is the difference between group generator’s providers since a cost composition of a component be composed by the combination of direct and indirect costs, technological production costs and commodities costs, the last one in larger relevance to steel and cooper to the present study