Análise da atratividade da geração híbrida de energia elétrica de acordo com o atual cenário do mercado brasileiro

Abstract

In the context of world installed capacity, energy generation is mainly based on plants that use only one energy source in this process. However, the so-called hybrid generation is capable of encompassing arrangements between different sources and generation technologies to guarantee the energy supply. In this context, efforts are being made to integrate energy from renewable sources into the Brazilian matrix, specifically for hydraulic, wind and solar sources in the form of Hybrid Generator Plants (UGH), recently regulated and still in the testing and adaptation phase. In view of this, this work evaluates the attractiveness of these systems at the market level through their technical-economic potential, their benefits, implementation costs and electricity tariffs. Thus, a conceptual review of the Brazilian energy market, its constituent agents and its operating methodology is presented, as well as hybrid generation systems, their characteristics, means of operation and regulation. Based on this discussion, methodological procedures are presented that seek to address the feasibility analysis of these systems, supported by the computational tool Homer Pro and parameters such as net present value (NPV), levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), capacity factor and the economic fluctuations determined from the analysis of elasticity and sensitivity of the samples. The analysis of the capacity factor verified the complementarity between the sources, especially in the most attractive regions such as the South, Southeast and Northeast of Brazil, although the plants need an average of 10 years in view of the best implementation scenarios for viability. In addition, the sensitivity and elasticity assessment defined the initial capital and the energy generated as the main variables that promote changes in the systems, and the optimization carried out with Homer Pro performed new scenarios to provide different options for the viability of the plants by changing these variables.