Comparação de métricas de avaliação financeira e gerenciamento de riscos para análise de investimentos em microgeração distribuída fotovoltaica

Abstract

Electrical energy plays an important role in people's lives, being the main source of energy used to carry out daily needs. As consequence, the use of clean technologies to generate electrical energy has become the first choice for consumers, initially due to the support of public policies, and over time because they are simply the most economical. In the case of photovoltaic electricity generation, the behavior of solar radiation and the power of the generation system have uncertainties that may be relevant for classifying risk in investments for this type of energy generation. Therefore, this research proposes to investigate, in accordance with Law 14,300, the risk of investing in residential distributed generation systems. For this, cost and investment analysis will first be carried out using deterministic LCOE and NPV metrics for residential consumers who produce their own energy in 26 municipalities located in the state of Minas Gerais. Next, a risk classification will be made, based on the stochastic NPV approach, calculated through Monte Carlo Simulation. Through this approach, the CVaR risk metric will be compared with the Omega index, highlighting the importance of using such measures for this type of risk analysis. The results showed that there are differences in the ranking between the deterministic and stochastic approaches between the municipalities analyzed, and the municipalities in which a higher tariff on electricity is charged were the places where the greatest potential and the greatest risk on financial return occurred, in addition to presenting a greater probability of gain in relation to the probability of losses when investing in residential photovoltaic systems compared to the other municipalities analyzed.