Avaliação estratégica de viabilidade de empreendimentos de pequenas centrais hidrelétricas por meio de indicadores de desempenho

Abstract

Although classified as a source of clean energy generation, Small Hydroelectric Power Plants (SPH) have been losing competitiveness compared to other renewable sources in Brazil due to technical, environmental, regulatory, and economic issues. Aiming to contribute to the development and reinforce the insertion of SPH, economic development, diversification of the electricity mix, and increased energy security in the country, this research was developed, seeking to combine the knowledge acquired about this source with a methodology, the Balanced Scorecard (BSC), seeking its adaptation for use as a strategic feasibility assessment tool for SPH projects under development, from the prospecting phase to the pre-implantation phase. The BSC is a management system used to measure organizational performance, developed in the 90s and widely applied until today, structured around four perspectives (financial, customer, internal processes, and learning and growth), subdivided into financial and non-financial performance indicators, which analyze organizations striving for increased overall performance. The most important contribution of this research to the literature is its originality. In the bibliographic review, only one similar research was identified, focused on the strategic feasibility analysis of Mini and Micro Hydroelectric Power Plants to be implemented in isolated systems. The main objectives of this research were (i) the structuring of a Strategic Map of the PCH source, composed of the Economic, Socioenvironmental, Institutional, and Technical Perspectives, in adaptation to the four perspectives of the BSC, with all the Performance Indicators necessary for the strategic evaluation of the PCH, and (ii) the development of a Computational Program, through the easy-to-use Microsoft Office EXCEL® software, which allows, after inserting all the required data regarding the SPH under analysis, the visualization of the results by Performance Indicators, by Perspectives and the General Performance of the PCH under analysis, highlighting those indicators or perspectives that are harming the strategic viability of the project. For the best adaptation of the BSC for the strategic evaluation of the SHP, the works were developed with the support of a group of specialists, with extensive experience in the development of SHP projects in Brazil and for the correct assessment of the results of the program's elaborate spreadsheets, case studies of the application of this adaptation of the BSC in eight real SPH projects were carried out, to allow the structuring of a consistent program. Finally, a methodological approach was carried out to analyze the results obtained through the selected performance indicators and their real applicability for making strategic decisions aiming at improving the technical characteristics and processes for the continuous improvement of the performance of the SPH. As a result, it is commented that (i) the adaptation of the BSC methodology for the strategic evaluation of the SHP's viability proved to be effective; and (ii) the computational program developed showed robustness and efficiency in the SPH analysis, even with different technical characteristics, linked to the environment and stages of development. Finally, it is commented that the strategic assessment of the feasibility of SPH undertakings proposed in this research is not intended to discern the economic and financial viability of the SPH but rather to allow a more comprehensive analysis of the SPH and its development processes as a whole, to help the decision-maker, indicating the strengths and weaknesses of the project being evaluated, enabling better knowledge of the asset and the areas of development that deserve greater attention, to improve its performance.