Resumo:
In the global context of energy transition, replacing fossil fuels with renewable sources is essential. One of the strategies to support this transition is the development of instruments that recognize the socio-environmental benefits of clean energy sources, such as the carbon credit market in the electricity sector. In this context, this study analyzed the technical and economic feasibility of hybrid energy generation through the incineration of municipal solid waste (MSW) combined with photovoltaic energy, aimed at meeting the electricity demand of municipal consortia, also considering the commercialization of carbon credits. Four distinct MSW management scenarios were evaluated for the Intermunicipal Consortium of Municipalities of Alto Sapucaí for Sanitary Landfill (CIMASAS), varying the recycling rates of dry and organic materials according to the goals of the National Solid Waste Plan. The economic analysis considered two models under Brazilian regulation: Self-Production (APE) and Mini and Micro Distributed Generation (MMGD). Indicators such as Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Payback Period, and Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) were calculated. The results demonstrated technical and economic feasibility for the proposed hybrid generation, with increasing attractiveness as recycling rates rise: NPV and IRR increased, while the Payback Period decreased. The APE model showed better economic performance compared to MMGD. On average, APE presented an NPV 49.10% higher, an IRR 21.66% greater, a Payback Period 51.68% shorter, and an LCOE 40.80% lower. Including revenue from carbon credits further enhanced attractiveness: in APE, the NPV increased by an average of 47.33%, the IRR by 24.09%, while the Payback Period and LCOE decreased by 28.17% and 40.57%, respectively. In the MMGD model, the gains were even more significant: an average increase of 134.99% in NPV, 39.46% in IRR, and a reduction of 38.61% in Payback Period and 36.98% in LCOE. These results highlight that recognizing the environmental value in energy generation strengthens the economic attractiveness of renewable hybrid plants, contributing to the acceleration of the transition to a zero-carbon matrix.
