Resumo:
In contemporary cities, constrained and unequal access to reliable, affordable energy limits
opportunity and reinforces socio-environmental disparities. A broader view is therefore
required—one that links energy access to regional economy, demography, and environmental
quality—so that interventions can be designed to reduce vulnerability and improve welfare.
Existing power-sector models capture capacity expansion or dispatch but seldom assess how
cleaner supply interacts with population growth, economic output, and ecosystem conditions
over long horizons. This dissertation develops an integrated framework that combines a unitcommitment–
inspired energy layer with a Wonderland-style system-dynamics model,
extending the model to represent renewable penetration, abatement, and nature-based solutions
(NbS). Using Itajubá as the reference system (population 96,632; annual electricity demand
251,110.95 MWh), the analysis quantifies the growth of renewable energies and nature-based
solutions. Three policy scenarios are simulated—No changes, intermediate renewable
integration, and full integration with smart grid and NbS—over multi-decadal scales to reveal
expected co-evolutionary patterns. Results show that moderate action bends the pollution
trajectory and slows environmental degradation, while a comprehensive portfolio more clearly
reduces emissions intensity, buffers natural-capital losses, and supports a higher, more stable
economic path, even though total renewables remain below full self-sufficiency. A
complementary economic appraisal indicates positive net present values, an atractive Internal
Rate of Return (IRR) for photovoltaic (PV) and Rainwater Harvesting (RWH), and a Levelized
Cost of Energy (LCOE) for PV (0.44 BRL/kWh) below the prevailing tariff, indicating
feasibility. The evidence supports a portfolio of distributed renewables, NbS, and abatement as
a credible route to a cleaner, more resilient, and socially inclusive urban system.
