Avaliação das perspectivas e impactos da extensão do programa renovabio no mercado de eficiência energética do Brasil

Abstract

Energy efficiency is strategic for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and advancing a sustainable energy transition. This study evaluates the creation of a carbon credit market focused on energy efficiency policies in Brazil, using the RenovaBio program as a reference. The research estimates the emissions avoided by the PROCEL and PEE-ANEEL programs, analyzes potential financial gains under different scenarios, and proposes a market structure tailored to the electricity sector. It is estimated that between 2016 and 2022, PROCEL, in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors, avoided cumulative emissions of 8.37 million, 454 thousand, and 2.7 million tons of CO₂e, respectively. In a low-price scenario, the estimated sale of PROCEL credits would result in gains ranging from US$ 5.5 to US$ 15.5 million, reaching US$ 130 million in medium/high-price scenarios during the period. Based on a sample of 765 PEE-ANEEL projects developed between 2014 and 2022, a cumulative reduction of approximately 380 thousand tons of CO₂e was estimated, with the end use of lighting standing out, accounting for 57% of the total estimate. The proposed market structure includes the certification of projects through the issuance of the Certificate of Carbon Reduction in Energy Efficiency (CRECE) and the trading of Carbon Credits in Energy Efficiency (CefEn). The scope, management and governance mechanisms, criteria for setting reduction targets, trading environment at B3, mechanisms for flexibility and stability, as well as monitoring and compliance rules, were also defined. The institutional organization of the market was represented in a flowchart, highlighting the interactions among the agents.