Resumo:
This dissertation assesses the potential of integrating climatic data into the operation
of off-grid photovoltaic (PV) systems, with emphasis on balancing energy supply,
system reliability, and battery-bank preservation. A Climatic Adaptive State-of-Charge
Control (CACS) strategy is proposed, which dynamically adjusts the lower SOC limit
based on a climatic index r(t), thereby aligning energy storage utilization with the
anticipated risk of generation shortfalls. A simulation framework was developed to
couple PV generation, load demand, and battery aging, using ten years of hourly
meteorological data (INMET/BDMEP) for Maria da Fé, Minas Gerais, Brazil. The
comparison between control strategies followed a full 2! factorial design combining
control approach (conventional vs. CACS), maximum depth of discharge (DoD"#$ =
20% vs. 40%), and system sizing (baseline vs. oversized), totaling eight scenarios.
The results show a reduction in mean annual unmet energy from 500.68 kWh/year
(C2) to 169.04 kWh/year (C8), with the served energy fraction increasing from 0.850
to 0.951. Mean daily reliability increased from 0.228–0.239 (C1–C2) to 0.730–0.737
(C8–C7). Regarding aging, annual throughput ranged from 66 to 79 kAh/year, and the
annual consumed life fraction ranged from 0.132 to 0.140, corresponding to an
estimated lifetime of 7.15 to 7.58 years. Overall, the performance of CACS is
conditioned by the operating regime, providing an objective basis for design and
operational decision-making in off-grid PV systems.
