Cenários prospectivos para o mercado de petróleo no Brasil: Impacto do Pré-Sal e do choque na demanda em 2020

Abstract

This study explores different scenarios for the Brazilian Pre-Salt oil production and its associated impact in the Brazilian petroleum market. For the retrospective analysis, two alternative scenarios show how important oil production from the Pre-Salt reservoirs was in the last decade. For the prospective analysis, this study outlines an envelope for the Brazilian Pre-Salt results in the next ten years based on five scenarios with different combinations of quantitative factors (oil production, oil demand, and oil price), as well as qualitative factors (regulatory and environmental restrictions), in the post-pandemic environment. Oil is the main energy resource for both production and consumption matrices in Brazil. The Brazilian Pre- Salt reservoirs are already responsible for most of the national oil production and nearly all the oil production expansion forecasted for the next decade. Considered since its discovery one of the most promising oil provinces in the world, the Brazilian Pre-Salt faced some regulatory restrictions that delayed its development in the first half of the last decade. Despite regulation improvements made lately, its exploration will face further challenges due to the oil market crisis and economic recession caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. However, the results of the study show that, for the period between 2020 and 2029, oil production will remain higher than oil demand. The excess of oil production shall guarantee trade balance surplus for oil and oil derivatives, even in the worst-case scenario, despite initial restrictions and the possible effect of the post-pandemic crisis.