Resumo:
This study explores different scenarios for the Brazilian Pre-Salt oil production and its
associated impact in the Brazilian petroleum market. For the retrospective analysis, two
alternative scenarios show how important oil production from the Pre-Salt reservoirs was in
the last decade. For the prospective analysis, this study outlines an envelope for the Brazilian
Pre-Salt results in the next ten years based on five scenarios with different combinations of
quantitative factors (oil production, oil demand, and oil price), as well as qualitative factors
(regulatory and environmental restrictions), in the post-pandemic environment. Oil is the main
energy resource for both production and consumption matrices in Brazil. The Brazilian Pre-
Salt reservoirs are already responsible for most of the national oil production and nearly all
the oil production expansion forecasted for the next decade. Considered since its discovery
one of the most promising oil provinces in the world, the Brazilian Pre-Salt faced some
regulatory restrictions that delayed its development in the first half of the last decade. Despite
regulation improvements made lately, its exploration will face further challenges due to the
oil market crisis and economic recession caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. However, the
results of the study show that, for the period between 2020 and 2029, oil production will
remain higher than oil demand. The excess of oil production shall guarantee trade balance
surplus for oil and oil derivatives, even in the worst-case scenario, despite initial restrictions
and the possible effect of the post-pandemic crisis.
