Resumo:
Although Brazilian Universities and Federal Institutes have been awarded some
decentralizations of the public power for the installation of photovoltaic systems
to mitigate electricity costs, a greater economic incentive from the government is
still needed, so that they can use better the practices of the sciences and
technologies that they develop in a way that they become energetically
sustainable. The present work had as general objective to organize a business
model in a stochastic way to foment public investment in photovoltaic systems in
the context of Distributed Generation - GD in a sample of Federal Institutes of
Higher Education - IFES, being analyzed 9 universities and 26 campuses. The
following specific research objectives were investigated by evaluating the
feasibility of generation in the federal universities' own load, assessing the
feasibility of remote self-consumption of federal universities, analyzing the risk
and uncertainty in each case and finally organizing a framework of investment
decision-making according to the concession area of each federal university, in
order to optimize its energy issue and establish a decision-making method. The
analysis was performed using Monte Carlo simulation. As they are alternatives
that compete with each other and have the same time horizon, it can be said that
they are mutually exclusive alternatives and, therefore, only one will be executed
(chosen). And as indicators for analysis, Net Present Value, Annualized Value,
Return on Investment and discounted payback were used. With the results
obtained, it was concluded that the installation of a photovoltaic system in both
scenarios is feasible, however, as only one project should be chosen, the
installation of a photovoltaic system in each university campus is much more
attractive, as the studies showed.
