Análise de modelos e viabilidades para inserção de sistemas de geração fotovoltaica em universidades públicas brasileiras visando a sustentabilidade energética

Abstract

Although Brazilian Universities and Federal Institutes have been awarded some decentralizations of the public power for the installation of photovoltaic systems to mitigate electricity costs, a greater economic incentive from the government is still needed, so that they can use better the practices of the sciences and technologies that they develop in a way that they become energetically sustainable. The present work had as general objective to organize a business model in a stochastic way to foment public investment in photovoltaic systems in the context of Distributed Generation - GD in a sample of Federal Institutes of Higher Education - IFES, being analyzed 9 universities and 26 campuses. The following specific research objectives were investigated by evaluating the feasibility of generation in the federal universities' own load, assessing the feasibility of remote self-consumption of federal universities, analyzing the risk and uncertainty in each case and finally organizing a framework of investment decision-making according to the concession area of each federal university, in order to optimize its energy issue and establish a decision-making method. The analysis was performed using Monte Carlo simulation. As they are alternatives that compete with each other and have the same time horizon, it can be said that they are mutually exclusive alternatives and, therefore, only one will be executed (chosen). And as indicators for analysis, Net Present Value, Annualized Value, Return on Investment and discounted payback were used. With the results obtained, it was concluded that the installation of a photovoltaic system in both scenarios is feasible, however, as only one project should be chosen, the installation of a photovoltaic system in each university campus is much more attractive, as the studies showed.