Investimento em distribuição utilizando opções reais

Abstract

In the last years there has been an increase in the use and acceptation of the Real Options Methodology in the investment analysis, adding new informations to the making decision process. This work presents the concepts, possibilities, limitations and practices of this Methodology and the state of the art of its application in several areas of trade and industry. The investment analysis with real options becomes more rich, because considers the ramdomic variables and the possible changes in the direction of the investment. This work analyses the application of the Real Options theory in the economic analysis of investments in the expansion of distribution electric systems. The introduction of Real Options in the planning of electric distribution systems is in accordance with the need of executives of a tool that considers scientifically the options of postponement, expansion, abandonment and contraction of the investments proposed as alternatives to supply the electricity market. Intuitively these options have always been considered in the electric sector. An application of the Real Options methodology in a real case of expansion planning of the ESCELSA distribution system is presented, including the analysis of the results, conclusions and recommendations. The presentation of these results connects the traditional methodology to the Real Options analysis; the first realized with deterministic focus, and the second with probabilistic. In this case the investment is no more an obligation, but an option. This work shows in details the traditional economic analysis methodology, as used in the brazilian companies, its application and the criteria of investments decision. With the purpose of showing the differences between planned and realized in economic terms, the work presents the economic results of investments realized in 3 distribution substations of ESCELSA, observed 5 years after the start of operation. As a result of this work, we conclude that the Real Options Analysis may be considered a reliable alternative for economic analysis of investments, because of the uncertainness that involves the brazilian electricity market, and the possible management flexibilities in the process of expansion of the electric distribution system.