Resumo:
In the last years there has been an increase in the use and acceptation of the Real
Options Methodology in the investment analysis, adding new informations to the
making decision process. This work presents the concepts, possibilities, limitations and
practices of this Methodology and the state of the art of its application in several areas
of trade and industry. The investment analysis with real options becomes more rich,
because considers the ramdomic variables and the possible changes in the direction of
the investment. This work analyses the application of the Real Options theory in the
economic analysis of investments in the expansion of distribution electric systems.
The introduction of Real Options in the planning of electric distribution systems is in
accordance with the need of executives of a tool that considers scientifically the options
of postponement, expansion, abandonment and contraction of the investments proposed
as alternatives to supply the electricity market. Intuitively these options have always
been considered in the electric sector.
An application of the Real Options methodology in a real case of expansion planning of
the ESCELSA distribution system is presented, including the analysis of the results,
conclusions and recommendations.
The presentation of these results connects the traditional methodology to the Real
Options analysis; the first realized with deterministic focus, and the second with
probabilistic. In this case the investment is no more an obligation, but an option.
This work shows in details the traditional economic analysis methodology, as used in
the brazilian companies, its application and the criteria of investments decision.
With the purpose of showing the differences between planned and realized in economic
terms, the work presents the economic results of investments realized in 3 distribution
substations of ESCELSA, observed 5 years after the start of operation.
As a result of this work, we conclude that the Real Options Analysis may be considered
a reliable alternative for economic analysis of investments, because of the uncertainness
that involves the brazilian electricity market, and the possible management flexibilities
in the process of expansion of the electric distribution system.