Resumo:
Decarbonization of the electrical matrix is a key component of mitigation strategies for
environmental impacts aimed at reducing levels of carbon dioxide concentration in the
atmosphere. The energy transition from fossil sources to renewable sources is an adequate
measure to manage the reduction of emissions resulting from the energy generation process,
while promoting the socioeconomic development of the regions where this strategy is applied.
The present study aims to assess the long-term changes in the environmental and economic
performance of Brazil's electricity matrix, based on the government plan. In order to achieve
this objective, prospective scenarios were defined: the reference scenario is based on the
government's energy expansion plan for the 2030-2050 horizon, and three others were drawn
up based on this. For these, it was considered that there would be no growth in fossil energy
sources in the future, and their participation would be constant, according to the generation
values for the year 2019. Thus, in the second scenario, it was considered that the possible growth
of the fuel fossil would be replaced by the maximum penetration of biomass in the 2030-2050
government plan, as well as in the third scenario it was considered that this replacement was
made by the maximum penetration of the wind source and finally, the fourth scenario was
considered the maximum penetration of the source photovoltaic (PV). The increase in the fossil
source would only happen if the amount of maximum renewable energy penetration was not
sufficient to supply the future energy increment. In order to analyze the environmental
performance of the analyzed scenarios, the Life Cycle Analysis methodology was used and for
economic performance, the leveled cost of energy (LCOE). The results show that the best
performance for the Global Warming Potential (GWP) was for the scenario of maximizing the
wind source, with an average value of 0.121 kgCO2/kWh and the worst performance for the
scenario of government energy expansion, with the average value of 0.167 kgCO2/kWh. The
lowest average leveled cost of electricity was for the wind expansion scenario, with 0.0438
USD/kWh and the highest leveled cost of electricity was for the biomass expansion scenario,
with 0.0476 USD/kWh. The results of this study can support the formulation of policies for the
future planning of Brazilian bioenergy.
