Análise das estimativas de precipitação baseadas em satélites para estudo de eventos extremos na Bacia Hidrográfica do rio Piracicaba/MG

Abstract

Climate change can modify the hydrological cycle resulting in changes in the intensity and variability of rainfall, which, in turn, can lead to the occurrence of natural disasters, conflicts in the use of water, in addition to other socioeconomic and environmental impacts. For better planning, management and regulation of water resources in the face of these challenges, it is possible to highlight the hydrometeorological studies that are important to understand about the availability and use of water, analyze the occurrences and perform the forecast of extreme events, among others. In this context, the rainfall data used in these studies are essential, since the greater the quantity, coverage and precision, the greater the probability of correct predictions. However, in Brazil there is a lack of ground observations both in terms of temporal and spatial coverage. For this reason, there is a need to look for other sources of precipitation data such as satellite-based estimates to try to complete these failures and to carry out better water planning. Therefore, this work intends to evaluate the performance of precipitation estimates from meteorological satellites in the Hydrographic Basin of the Piracicaba River/MG, Doce River sub-basin, in order to verify its potential use as an alternative for application in studies of extreme hydrological events and as a tool for water planning and management. For this, an analysis will be carried out using statistical indicators which will compare the data from observational pluviometric stations and precipitation data from satellite products. The data of the pluviometric stations will be obtained through the Hidroweb platform of the National Water and Sanitation Agency. The precipitation data from TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission), IMERG (Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM) and CMORH (CPC Morphing Technique) satellite products will be obtained through their respective platforms. Rainfall maps were prepared for the basin using geoprocessing tools and satellite estimates were also evaluated during extreme precipitation events, relating them to the socio-environmental impacts, described in the official documents of the Integrated Disaster Information System (S2id) of the Ministry of Development Regional, as well as the associated meteorological mechanisms. The results of this study showed that the TRMM and IMERG presented better results in relation to CMORPH when compared to rainfall stations, adding to the planning of water infrastructure systems to reduce the impacts of floods and droughts in scenarios of scarcity of data and rainfall information.